Tuesday, August 10, 2021

                     ===========================
                        ~ ~ THE FALL OF KABUL ~ ~
                        Classical Asymmetric Warfare
                      Reminiscent of
                       General Võ Nguyên Giáp:

                     @ the Battle of  Diên Biên Phu

                     (13 March – 7 May 1954), &

                      @  the "Fall of Saigon"

                      (29 April 1975)

 
 Public Opinion of the War in Afghanistan
"88% of Americans Approve of the Military Action"
October 31, 2001 Gallup Poll
Frank Newport

IMPOTUS3 ORDERS AFGHANISTAN "BUG-OUT"
 (For an asymmetrical campaign, the spring thaw 
is the beginning of a spring offensive.)
Meanwhile, the "West" will be  focused on securing the Afghan Government in Kabul
(while securing, concentrating & supplying
the outlying cities & towns.)
Meanwhile,the Taliban insurgents will begin to control the roads,
and "capture the hearts & minds" of the rural peasants,
while leaving the urban areas alone, excepting
Offensive #1:  Harassment tactics of sporadic urban violence
keeps the U.S. & Afghan army / Police concentrated in fortified camps and the populace in a state of perpetual angst; and,
Offensive #2:  Sporadic attacks & IED's on the highways & by-ways will continue to pressure the urban areas into a siege mentality,
while gaining mobility for the insurgents themselves.
 
"The guerrilla must move amongst the people
as a fish swims in the sea."
Mao Zedong

 1 May 2021:  Taliban Offensive Begins
In the first three months of the offensive, the Taliban
made significant advances in the countryside,
increasing the number of districts it controls from
73 to 223, progressively isolating urban centers.

 06 Aug 2021 Operations:
1)  06 Aug - Zaranj captured, controlling
       border-crossing from Iran ...

Starting on 6 August, the Taliban captured twenty-six of
Afghanistan's thirty-four provincial capitals,
including Kandahar and Herat, and by 10 August,
the Taliban controlled 65% of the country's area.
The Taliban are skirmishing around the approaches to the cities of Herat, Kandahar and Lashkar Gah. The United States has increased airstrikes in recent weeks to help prop up Afghan government forces, and has been particularly intense in the southern province of Helmand, where the capital of Kandahar is besieged.

Additional B-52 aircraft arrive at Al Udeid
04 May 2021 - U.S. Air Forces Central

 
 
 
07-10 Aug 2021 Operations:
1)  07 Aug - Sheberghan captured, controlling
      the Western terminus of Highway AH76 ...
2)  08 Aug - Sar-e-Pol captured, helping to secure
      the North-West between Herat and Kabul ...
3)  08 Aug - Kunduz & Talogan captured, controlling
      the Northern terminus of  Highway AH7
      and the border-crossing into Tajikistan ...
4)  09 Aug - Aybak captured, controlling Highway AH76
      North of Kabul to Mazar-i-Sharif ...
5)  09 Aug - Lashkar Gah captured, controlling
      Highway AH71 from Zaranj to
      the Highway AH1 Junction ...
 
Taliban fighters now control large portions
of territory along Afghanistan’s northern border
with China, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.
The aim of the operation was to “get hold of financial hubs,
and the main commercial trade routes connecting
Afghanistan with central Asian countries, emphasizing
Afghanistan’s main port with Uzbekistan
and crossing with Turkmenistan.
 
6)  Herat under attack, controlling Highway AH1
      at its North-Western terminus.
 
These three engagements effectively cut off Kandahar,
isolating the Western 1/3 of Afghanistan...
 
7)  Continued skirmishing South of Kabul
     controls Highway AH1 at its North-Eastern terminus,
     potentially placing Kandahar in a pocket...
8)  Mazar-i-Sharif is in a pocket.
 
The next Taliban objective in the West may be to
cut Highway AH1 between Kandahar and Kabul,
which could place both cities in separate pockets
... however, the Taliban ... may ...take a day-or-two
to consolidate the North & West beyond the Kandahar-Kabul Corridor.
 
 

B-52s Lead New US Airpower Onslaught to Stop Taliban Advances
07 Aug 2021 - New York Post

Tiny Mauritius Learns the Limits of Biden’s
Invocation of the International ‘Rules-Based 0rder’
08 Aug 2021 - WaPo

 Pace of Taliban Advance Quickens as
Militants Overrun Three Major Cities in a Single Day

08 Aug 2021 - WaPo

Biden Unmoved on Afghan Exit as Taliban Sweep Provinces
09 Aug 2021 - Raw Story

U.S. Officials Warn Collapse of Afghan Capital
Could Come Sooner Than Expected
10 Aug 2021 - WaPo

On Tuesday (10 Aug), the Taliban overran the capitals of Badakhshan in the north, Farah in the west and Baghlan.

11-12 Aug 2021 Operations:
1)  Pul-e-Khumri, Capital of Baghlan province captured,
     controlling the junction of Highways AH76 & AH7
     thus giving control of the North to the Taliban.
 

The next Taliban objective in the North may be to
press South along Highway AH76 to the junction
of Highway A77 at Charikar & Mahmud-i-Raqi,
securing the entire Northern 1/3 of the country,
and also controlling the Herat-Chaghcharan-Charikar road
.

2)  Capture Herat ...
3)  Siege or Capture Kandahar.

 Hundreds of Afghan Forces Surrender in Kunduz
as Taliban Consolidates Hold on Country’s North
11 Aug 2021 - WaPo

Taliban Fighters Capture Afghan City
at Strategic Junction North of Kabul
11 Aug 2021 - The Guardian

Afghanistan: Finance Minister Resigns,
Leaves Country as Security Situation Worsens
11 Aug 2021 - Stratfor

 Taliban Take Kandahar and
Herat in Major Afghanistan 0ffensive

11 Aug 2021 - Associated Press

 U.S. Sending Thousands More Troops to Afghanistan to
Bolster Security as Some Embassy Staff Are Withdrawn

12 Aug 2021 - WaPo

The U.S. embassy has advised nonofficial
Americans in Afghanistan to leave “immediately”
and noted that flights are limited.

Taliban Fighters Capture 10th Provincial Capital
After Days of Sweeping Gains

12 Aug 2021 - WaPo

Ghazni has been under siege by the militants for over
three months, and is the 10th provincial capital
to fall to the Taliban in less than a week.
The province’s governor was arrested while fleeing.
Taliban fighters pushed farther South towards the
city of Kandahar.

UK and US Send Troops to Aid Evacuation from
Afghanistan as Taliban Advances

12 Aug 2021 - The Guardian

The seizure of Kandahar and Herat marked the
biggest prizes yet for the Taliban, who have now
taken 12 of the country’s 34 provincial capitals.

"Pentagon is sending a thousand troops to Qatar.
"4,000 additional US troops will be put on standby in Kuwait."

Taliban Tighten Grip on Approaches to Kabul
in Afghanistan Offensive

12 Aug 2021 - The Guardian

Afghan government control has shrunk to
less than a third of the country’s territory.

 
The night of 12th Aug., the fall of Ghazni, 90 miles south
of the capital, and which sits on Highway 1 connecting
Kabul and Kandahar, means the Taliban control the main
strategic approaches to Kabul from the north and south
after the fall of Pul-e Khumri two days ago.
 
12-15 Aug 2021 Operations:
"A famous NOE (Noncombatant Evacuation Operation) mission
was Operation Frequent Wind, during which more than
7,000 Vietnamese civilians were evacuated from Saigon
on April 29 and 30, 1975 by helicopter."      13 Aug - Aljazeera
 
  30 Apr 1975 - U.S. Embassy Saigon
 
1)  To secure the Hamid Karzai International Airport in Kabul in
      order to evacuate U.S. troops and U.S. and Afghani civilian ...
2)  To secure Highway AH1 / Highway M-1,the
      Kabul-to-Islamababad refugee-highway corridor.
3)  Captured;
       A)  06 Aug - Zaranj
       B)  09 Aug - Lashkar Gah
       C)  07 Aug - Sheberghan
       D)  08 Aug - Sar-e-Pol, Kunduz & Talogan
       E)  09 Aug - Aybak
       F)  11 Aug  - Pul-e-Khumri
       G)  12 Aug - Qalati Ghilji, Tarin Kot, Herat and Kandahar
       H)  13 Aug - Firuz Koh
        I)  14 Aug - Puli-e Alim & Gardez

Kabul and Jalalabad are now encircled,
each in their own respective siege-pocket,
supported only by airstrikes.
Contrary to our popular perception in the west, for Afghans the period of conflict started with the communist coup in 1978, followed by the Soviet military invasion on Christmas Eve in 1979.
                                                       Gleaned The Guardian
Perhaps most serious was the decision by the
Afghan military not to contest the countryside
as the Western-backed forces withdrew,
but to concentrate instead on defending the cities,
allowing the Taliban to isolate and besiege provincial
capitals and cut off lines of communication,
ultimately squeezing Kabul.
                                                       Gleaned from The Guardian
 
The most devastating blow, was Kandahar and Herat falling to the Taliban on 12th August as Afghan and US Air Forces – including American F/A-18 Fighters, AC-130 Gunships, and B-52 Bombers failed to slow the Taliban advance.
Arguably,  the F/A-18's are flying in from both the USS Iwo Jima
Expeditionary Strike Force's LHD-7 Assault Carrier stationed
at the Northern end of the Persian Gulf off Kuwait City, and
Al-Udeid Airbase in Oatar, which is also deploying
AC-130 Spectre Gunships and B-52 Stratofortress Bombers.
The B-52's are also flying in from "Camp Thunder Cove" at
on the Island of Diego Garcia from the Nuclear Aircraft
Carrier USS Ronald Reagan (CVN-76).
                                                        Gleaned from The Guardian
 
 ====================================
====================================
  15 Aug 2021 - U.S Embassy Kabul
 
 
Mayhem At Kabul Airport
Common Dreams - 16 Aug 2021
 
"The intelligence agencies' assessments of the Afghan government's ability to maintain itself became increasingly pessimistic over the course of the last six months. And there were any number of warnings that the Taliban might take over, and some that included a potential of a very rapid, the Afghan government enforces." (sic)
Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA)
Raw Story | August 23, 2021
 
 "For others who have been working with the U.S. on their visa paperwork for months, Congress stepped in to help move the process along for those there. The problem, however, is that the Embassy staff helping with that are at the airport. People can't get through the Taliban checkpoints without the documents that they can't get unless they go to the Embassy staff at  the airport."
Sarah K. Burris - Raw Story (18 Aug 2021)

"Nevertheless, the right thing for America to do, insist veterans, diplomats, pundits, women and non-governmental humanitarian groups, is for massive airlifts to rescue upwards of 90,000 now-refugees at risk ...
"The needed forms are complicated and all in English, of course, and there is no one left in Kabul to process would-be immigrants."
Terry H. Schwadron - DCReport (19 Aug 2021)
 
 "Catch 22":    (novel)
A)  Catch-22 (disambiguation) - (Wikipedia)
B)  noun -  (Merriam-Webster)
      1)  a dilemma or difficult circumstance from
           which there is no escape because
           of mutually conflicting or dependent
           conditions
     2)  A catch-22 is a paradoxical situation from
           which an individual cannot escape because
           of contradictory rules or limitations
     3)  a : an illogical, unreasonable,
                 or senseless situation
           b : a measure or policy whose effect
                 is the opposite of what was intended
           c : a situation presenting two equally
                 undesirable alternatives
Catch-22 (IMDb)
Catch-22 (youtube)

Friday, May 6, 2011

POINTS OF THE SPEAR




 
 
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